how i assess my infection risk
For this month's Bearblog Carnival topic by Moose, I'll talk about how I assess my infection risk!
A little while ago, I wrote "yes, i still wear a mask". In it, I laid out what thought goes into wearing it, why I do it, and when I don't. No one can completely isolate themselves forever and live in a virus-free vacuum, and I want to go out and experience life while still reducing my risk for severe infection.
In some contexts, wearing a mask all the time or at all is not feasible. In a restaurant, I'll have to eat and drink with the mask off, and if I stay at another person's place, I can't wear it 24/7. While playing Magic the Gathering in a local game store, it can get pretty crowded and loud all around me, and it's better for people to understand me and be able to read my lips when I announce my moves. Socializing in general is easier when the mask is off, as people tend to avoid you, restrict talking to you or trying to understand you when you wear a mask in public.
So how do I decide when to wear one, when I don't, and what events to stay away from and which ones to attend?
Of course, every situation is different, but I try to consider:
- Is it a place where lots of sick people gather? This one is obvious: Doctor's offices, hospitals, retirement homes, etc.
- Is there a current huge infection wave going on? The worst ones seem to always be around October and November, and then again January to March. It usually happens around holidays and other festivities: Autumn break, Christmas, NYE, our Karneval/Fasching, etc. Season should be considered; summer is usually more safe than winter.
- Related to the above point: Is it an event where people travel far to meet and don't want to miss out because of "a little cough"? Doesn't just apply because people don't wanna cancel Christmas, but also to the concert they paid too much for and have been waiting for for a year or so. Any once-a-year-or-less event or something that warranted a really expensive, non-refundable ticket is bound to have a high amount of sick people. You don't have to see or hear it, those are just the overt cases. A surprisingly high number went there having "had a swollen throat this morning, but now it's gone!"
- Is it a necessity even while sick? People, even while sick, usually need to use public transport or go grocery shopping, for example.
- Is it a place where people feel forced to go because of money and guilt? This one mostly hits places of employment, especially if it's a place that's understaffed, has shifts, hard to find replacements, no home office and so on. You'll have more sick workers in gastronomy than in software engineering.
- Will there be many children? Are the people there exposed to lots of children or have children of their own? Children are magnets for infections, and a surprising amount of parents don't want to stay home when their child is sick, and cannot find anyone else to watch the kid, so they take it with them anyway.
- How full will it realistically be? The less people in a closed space, the lesser the chances of a sick person being there, or getting a huge viral load.
- How long will I be there? The shorter, the less risky.
To illustrate it via an example, I was at my local game store playing Magic the Gathering yesterday. I had a mask with me just in case someone very sick was gonna show up, but I didn't end up wearing it. I considered the following points:
- It's not a place where sick people usually are in high numbers. I'd also say gamers and nerds in general would rather stay home sick and play a game on the couch than come in anyway.
- We're currently in a big infection wave, so I'm cautious.
- But: There are no rare, expensive, or high demand events going on. Nothing to miss out on, easy to cancel, no wasted money, and you can just postpone it or participate next week as usual.
- It's not a necessity to be there, it's actually quite optional to buy booster packs or play a round.
- Except for the employees, there's no financial or employment-related reason to show up.
- Children might come in for the Pokemon stuff, but should be rare. In my experience, parents drag their sick children to the necessities like grocery stores, not a game store.
- It won't be that full, as there are no big events, and it's a Friday afternoon/evening.
- I'll be there for 2-4 hours, depending on game length.
We'll see if that worked out for me, but I think the assumptions were reasonable.
Other brief examples: I'm wearing a mask during small team meetings (4-5 people) at work when one attendant was sick within the last 4 days, but otherwise I don't. When we have large department and sub-department meetings (which tend to go 3-4 hours with about 50-100+ attending), I wear one. I'd choose to cancel on a big family gathering in January or February.
Adopting this kind of strategic thinking could really help anyone reduce their time spent sick, not just immunocompromised or immunosuppressed people. You'll avoid some events, choose to schedule yours at a different time, or you'll show up with a mask or have one in your bag. It doesn't mean you'll miss out all the time :)
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